Caldwell County Voter Registration Rate — February 2026

Estimating voter registration rates by election precinct using Census citizen voting age population (CVAP) data

Summary

As of February 2026, an estimated 80.3% of eligible citizens in Caldwell County are registered to vote. But that county-wide number masks significant variation across precincts — from under 45% to over 139%.

Note

Rates over 100% indicate more registered voters than estimated eligible citizens (Citizen Voting Age Population, or CVAP — the number of U.S. citizens aged 18 and older). This is typically caused by population growth since the 2020 Census (the population denominator is stale) and/or voter roll bloat (people who moved but remain registered).

Interactive Map

Hover over each precinct to see registration details.

{
  const container = html`<div id="map" style="width:100%; height:600px; border:1px solid #ddd; border-radius:4px;"></div>`;

  // Load Leaflet
  const L = await require("leaflet@1.9.4");
  const linkEl = html`<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://unpkg.com/leaflet@1.9.4/dist/leaflet.css">`;
  document.head.appendChild(linkEl);

  yield container;

  const map = L.map("map").setView([29.83, -97.62], 11);
  L.tileLayer("https://{s}.basemaps.cartocdn.com/light_all/{z}/{x}/{y}{r}.png", {
    attribution: '&copy; OpenStreetMap contributors &copy; CARTO',
    maxZoom: 19
  }).addTo(map);

  const response = await fetch("caldwell_vtds.geojson");
  const geojson = await response.json();

  function getColor(rate) {
    if (rate === null || rate === undefined) return "#808080";
    const r = Math.min(rate, 1.0);
    if (r < 0.6) return "#d73027";
    if (r < 0.7) return "#fc8d59";
    if (r < 0.8) return "#fee08b";
    if (r < 0.9) return "#d9ef8b";
    if (r < 0.95) return "#91cf60";
    return "#1a9850";
  }

  L.geoJSON(geojson, {
    style: function(feature) {
      return {
        fillColor: getColor(feature.properties.Reg_Rate),
        weight: 1.5,
        color: "#333",
        fillOpacity: 0.7
      };
    },
    onEachFeature: function(feature, layer) {
      const p = feature.properties;
      const rate = p.Reg_Rate ? (p.Reg_Rate * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A";
      layer.bindTooltip(
        `<strong>Precinct ${p.Precinct}</strong><br>` +
        `Registered: ${p.Registered?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Est. CVAP: ${p.Est_CVAP?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Rate: <strong>${rate}</strong><br>` +
        `<hr style="margin:4px 0">` +
        `Hispanic Pop: ${p.Hispanic_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Black Pop: ${p.Black_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}<br>` +
        `Anglo Pop: ${p.Anglo_Pop?.toLocaleString() ?? "N/A"}`,
        {sticky: true}
      );
    }
  }).addTo(map);
}

Precinct Breakdown

data = FileAttachment("caldwell_reg_rate.csv").csv({typed: true})

Inputs.table(data, {
  columns: [
    "Precinct", "Total_Pop_2020", "VAP_2020", "Est_CVAP",
    "Registered", "Reg_Rate",
    "Anglo_Pop", "Hispanic_Pop", "Black_Pop"
  ],
  header: {
    Precinct: "Precinct",
    Total_Pop_2020: "Pop (2020)",
    VAP_2020: "VAP (18+)",
    Est_CVAP: "Est. CVAP (Citizens 18+)",
    Registered: "Registered",
    Reg_Rate: "Reg. Rate",
    Anglo_Pop: "Anglo",
    Hispanic_Pop: "Hispanic",
    Black_Pop: "Black"
  },
  format: {
    Reg_Rate: x => x ? (x * 100).toFixed(1) + "%" : "N/A",
    Total_Pop_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    VAP_2020: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Est_CVAP: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Registered: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Anglo_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Hispanic_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString(),
    Black_Pop: x => x?.toLocaleString()
  },
  sort: "Reg_Rate",
  reverse: false
})

Where to Focus

The five precincts with the lowest registration rates:

Precinct	Rate	Registered	Est. CVAP	Largest Group
0111	44.3%	1,478	3,339	Anglo (1,410)
0405	60.4%	567	938	Anglo (429)
0301	70.8%	1,181	1,667	Hispanic (1,053)
0206	72.7%	1,224	1,684	Hispanic (1,159)
0305	73.3%	632	862	Anglo (475)

These five precincts alone represent an estimated 3,608 unregistered eligible citizens — more than enough to shift outcomes in local elections.

Methodology

Registration rate is calculated as:

\[\text{Rate} = \frac{\text{Registered Voters}}{\text{Estimated CVAP}}\]

Precinct-level CVAP is estimated by disaggregating block-group CVAP from the American Community Survey (ACS) to individual census blocks (proportional to each block’s Voting Age Population, or VAP — everyone aged 18+, regardless of citizenship), then reaggregating by precinct. A shrinkage technique weighted by margin of error is applied to stabilize block-group estimates with large sampling error, blending them toward the county-level CVAP/VAP ratio (0.8854).

See the full methodology page for data sources and limitations.

Data Sources

• Voter Registration: Caldwell County Elections Office (February 2026)
• Voting Age Population: Texas Legislative Council, 2024 Voting Tabulation District (VTD) data (2020 Census)
• CVAP: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020-2024 ACS 5-Year CVAP Special Tabulation